Restructured Format
URL: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1i2-ewkMqb20mWVqXl8JYFVhKd6gkf1Sj?usp=drive_link
Technical Notes
The 2020 Census-Based Population Projections adopted the Cohort-Component Method which considers the three demographic processes of fertility, mortality, and migration to derive population change.
The population counts based on the 2020 Census of Population and Housing (CPH) was used as base population adjusted to 01 July 2020 using the age-specific fertility rates (ASFR), age-specific death rates (ASDR), and net number of international migrants in 2020. The resulting midyear population by age and sex served as the base population.
For the fertility inputs, the national total fertility rates (TFR) and ASFRs from the series of National Demographic and Health Surveys from 1973 to 2022 and registered births from the Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) were evaluated to derive the baseline fertility rates and its future fertility trend. The average adjusted TFR of 2.1 children from 2018 to 2020 registered births were adopted as the national baseline fertility. Three fertility projection scenarios were developed. Scenario 1 assumes that the TFR will rebound from 1.9 children in 2021 to 2.1 children in 2025, which will be sustained until 2055. Scenario 2 assumes that the TFR of 1.9 children in 2021 will be sustained until 2055. Scenario 3 projects that the TFR will decline from 2.1 children in 2020 to 1.7 children in 2055. The derived ASFR pattern from the 2021 adjusted registered births was used as the future ASFR pattern. For planning and programming purposes, the national population projections based on Scenario 2 are recommended for utilization.
For the mortality inputs, ASDRs by sex from the CRVS from 2020 to 2022 were adjusted according to the estimated level of death registration. Infant and child mortality rates were also adjusted using the 2022 National Demographic and Health Survey estimates. The resulting life expectancies at birth for males and females in 2020 were 66.2 years and 73.3 years, respectively. These values dropped to 64.1 years for males and 70.5 years for females in 2021 due to increased deaths, possibly due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The resulting 2022 life expectancy at birth from the ASDRs served as baseline inputs to project future life expectancies from the years 2023 to 2055. At the end of the projection period, the estimated life expectancies at birth for males and females are 74.6 years and 81.3 years, respectively. These values correspond to gains in life expectancy of 8.4 years and 8.0 years for males and females, respectively, from 2020.
To compute for the net number of international migrants, data in 2019 from the number of emigrants based on registered Filipino from the Commission on Filipinos Overseas and the number of immigrants based on the registration data from Bureau of Immigration were used. The difference between the net number of migrants for 2018 and 2019 was used to estimate the net number of migrants for 2020 (-47,823 migrants). A 10 percent increase, which was based on the average annual increase in net migration, was added every five (5) years thereafter.
The software Demographic Analysis and Population Projections System developed by the United States Census Bureau was used to generate population projections from 2021 to 2055 with inputs on the baseline population, baseline and projected fertility rates, baseline and projected life expectancies at birth, and baseline and projected net number of international migrants.
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Additional Information
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Data last updated | July 31, 2024 |
| Metadata last updated | August 2, 2024 |
| Created | July 31, 2024 |
| Format | XLSX |
| License | No License Provided |
| Has views | False |
| Id | d2b8bd2d-ab9c-4062-92b3-fa0615c8dba0 |
| Package id | a6933cbb-60f6-44f6-af5c-a1c11c1db2e0 |
| Position | 1 |
| State | active |